Round 2.

The unlikely happened in Dublin last weekend when favourites Ireland came up against a determined England side, which battered its way to surprising 32-20 win.

Before Saturday’s game QBE Business Insurance catastrophe planners, using a complex mathematical formula, had made Ireland clear favourites to win the Guinness Six Nations tournament, unless England were able to deliver an unlikely win in Dublin.

The updated QBE Rugby Predictor now doubles England’s chances of winning the tournament – from 28% to 58%. Ireland, on the other hand, have slipped from a 42% probability of winning the Six Nations to having just an 11% chance now.

The QBE Business Insurance Predictor applies some of the techniques actuaries use to predict the impact of catastrophes such as earthquakes and floods, and actuaries have used the formula to simulate the tournament 10,000 times producing outcomes from 150,000 games.

It gives Wales a slightly improved chance of winning the championship, up from 24% to 25%, putting them ahead of Ireland.  Scotland are predicted to come fourth with a 5% chance of taking the trophy, France fifth with a 1% chance of winning overall, and Italy bring up the rear with zero chance of being crowned champions.

Despite England’s impressive showing, the supercomputer still does not foresee a Grand Slam winner this year, predicting a 61% probability that no team can win all of their fixtures, slightly reduced from 63% last week. However, England’s chances of being Grand Slam champions have improved from 10% to 25% while Wales are given a 13% chance, up from 9% last week.

England have overtaken Ireland as the most likely team to win the Triple Crown with a 34% chance of taking the prize, compared with just 14% before the Dublin win. The QBE Rugby Predictor suggests that the most probable outcome is that no team can remain unbeaten in the battle of the home nations.

The predictions are based on an analysis by QBE Business Insurance actuaries of scores, results, past events and incidents over the last five years using a wide range of variables including the number of tries, kicks and conversions scored by the teams, the caps of each captain, latest world ranking and home/away advantage.

UPDATED PREDICTIONS FOR THE TOURNAMENT:

PREDICTED SCORES FOR THIS WEEKEND