Two-horse race.

New Zealand journalist Gregor Paul reckons there are only two serious contenders for next year’s Rugby World Cup in Japan – holders the All Blacks and Six Nations champions Ireland.

Writing for the NZ Herald, Paul reckons Ireland and New Zealand are the only two teams right now that are “are habitual, all of the time winners”, heading into rugby’s showpiece event next year.

He has branded Wales’ current third place ranking in the World Rugby Rankings as ‘false’ and branded the likes of South Africa, England and Scotland as ‘sometimes winners.’

“There are two teams at this juncture that are habitual, all of the time winners. They are the All Blacks and Ireland and right now, they are the only two teams who stack as credible likely World Cup winners next year.” Paul writes.

“The latter came into the last two World Cups as classic sometimes winners. No one got up like Ireland and yet no one collapsed as hard the following week either.”

“But since the last World Cup, we have seen a new Ireland – a team whose belief in what they are doing is matched by their understanding.”

“The old Ireland loved going close, but the new Ireland knows what it takes to finish a test with victory and their record says they are habitual winners. Their record suggests they can win three big games in a row.”

Paul does go on to say that he reckons the likes of England and South Africa could transition into ‘all of the time winners’ come next September, but as of now – it’s a two-horse race as far as he’s concerned.