This Is How Munster Can Still Qualify For The Champions Cup Quarter Finals
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A Munster Rugby fan over in the Munster Fans forum has worked out how the Southern Province can still qualify for the quarter finals of the Champions Cup.
The probability of the outcome needed is quite low in fairness, especially after some Sunday’s results but as Munster would say… “To the brave and the faithful, nothing is impossible.”
If we beat Treviso with bonus point then we only need Leicester to beat Stade, it would be OK if they got a losing bonus point, as long as they don’t get 2 bonus points. If we finish tied on points with Stade we have the better head to head since we got bonus point win v them.
So in order for Munster to qualify here is what I believe needs to happen:
First they need to beat Treviso with a bonus point & need Leicester to beat Stade.
Then they need at least 2 of the following to happen:
1. Wasps lose to both Toulon & Leinster getting no more than 1 bonus point, or Toulon lose to both Wasps & Bath getting no more than 3 points from those 2 games.
2. Ulster lose to or draw (without bonus point) with Oyonnax.
3. Clermont lose to Bordeaux with neither getting a bonus point and Ospreys beat or draw (no bonus point) with Exeter.
4. Northampton lose to Glasgow or Scarlets picking up no more than 5 points in those 2 games, if Glasgow do beat Northampton, then they lose or draw with Racing, picking up no more than 6 points from their 2 games.
Even then it could come down to points difference so the bigger the win v Treviso the better.
So all in all not very likely.
It is also possible to qualify by just beating Treviso without a bonus point, but in that case Leicester would have to win and stop Stade getting losing bonus point and even more would need to go our way in the other groups.
This will really have Munster fans thinking there was a couple of losing bonus points along the way, that they really could have picked up. All we know is Munster need to put as many points past Treviso as they can.